The Jarndyce Blog
Politics, PR and hack philosophy from A Guy Called Donald. But definitely no blogging. Probably.
 

30.6.05

The inalienable right to sports funding

We're all getting very excited about Andrew Murray. Well, all being the locker rooms of Hampshire and Surrey, and the collected crazies who camp out in SW19 all night just to watch 30 minutes of pat-ball and eight hours of drizzle. Plus a few celebs. Personally, I hate bloody tennis.

But I digress. This from Sean Connery is typical when experts and celebrities discuss funding young sports stars: we ought to be doing more. It's disgusting how well their peers are supported in Australia, the opportunities for scholarships in the US, the state largesse of our EU neighbours, and so on.

Let's leave aside for a minute that if Sean actually paid UK tax (disputed), we might be able to afford a whole lot more. My point is this: Andrew Murray is an EU citizen. EU countries are legally obliged to treat EU citizens equally. Spain is apparently quite brilliant at nurturing and supporting (including financially) young tennis stars. Do you see where I'm going yet...?


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:16
3 comments | links to this post


29.6.05

Votes for crims in RI

Further to this post last week, Rhode Island is moving towards enfranchising non-incarcerated criminals:
In response to a strong lobbying effort by a coalition of civil rights organizations, including the American Civil Liberties Union, the Rhode Island legislature today approved legislation paving the way for a Constitutional amendment to restore voting rights to probationers and parolees.
...
"Expanding our democracy, as the proposed amendment would, is in everyone�s interest -- it promotes rehabilitation and increases voter participation, both cornerstones of America's criminal justice and electoral systems," said Laleh Ispahani, the national ACLU's Felon Re-enfranchisement Fellow.

Minority communities in the state disproportionately bear the burden of voter disenfranchisement, with one in five black men and one in 11 Hispanic men ineligible to vote, according to a report by the Rhode Island Family Life Center. The organization also reports that Rhode Island disfranchises a greater percentage of its African American residents than Mississippi, Georgia, Texas and 34 other states. With long probation sentences increasingly the norm in Rhode Island, some felons are prevented from voting for decades after they have reentered the community.


posted by Jarndyce @ 20:54
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What is liberal democracy?

This isn't a bad starting point for a definition:
Economic democracy demands property rights, transparency and competition. Political democracy demands institutions, impartial bureaucracies that give fair and fearless advice, and then implement the will of the people through their elected leaders.

The other leg in this tripod of political and economic democracy is social democracy to ensure people have other freedoms - from the fear of sickness, accidents, or old age. This creates the social mobility necessary in a modern society.

Most right-libertarians would choke on the last of the three. But then that's because they have this crazy idea that property rights are unconditional and absolute. As a result they have no interest in 'liberty' at all, beyond the liberty to keep what's theirs, justly acquired or not. There is another word for that: theft. Or at the very least, handling stolen goods.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:58
7 comments | links to this post


A nice ID-ea that the end is coming soon

So, it passed. No surprises there. Despite the vast majority of speeches in yesterday's debate voicing opposition to the ID card scheme, an army of anonymous NuLabour salarymen[*] ensured the government was spared embarassment on its first major piece of legislation since the election.

What does amaze me, however, is that Blair's cabinet seem to have learned zilch from their near-humiliation last month. Groupthink has taken Downing Street. Blair is separating from reality, and the parliamentary party with him. From my own MP, Diane Abbott, during the debate:
It is a doomed Bill because even if thunder and lightning cannot stop it, and even if the House cannot stop it dead in its tracks tonight, we know for sure that it is doomed to overrun its budget and to spiral in costs. The scheme will experience IT failure and the Bill will not achieve any of the claims that the Government make for it. We also know that the scheme will become especially unpopular at exactly the wrong point of the political cycle. There will come a time when not one Labour MP will want to be reminded that they voted for the Bill.

I'd go further: not only is the scheme doomed, it will be NuLab's Flodden Field. The best Tory slogan in ages (yes, I know they didn't actually coin it first), the plastic poll tax, will catch tabloid fire. An unimagined alliance of blue rinses and angst-afflicted goths will march on the Home Office burning their barcodes. It won't be civil liberties arguments that sink it, but who cares? IT contractors can be relied upon to do what IT contractors do. Government procurers who couldn't procure you a packet of crisps without mishap will chip in. The scary red bill on the doormats of Middle England will wake the median voter from his lobotomized slumber. I'm with Alex: we will win. If I'm right and it does take this nasty little eight-year experiment in authoritarianism down with it, so much the better.

[*] I'm excluding this lot, especially Linda Riordan and Katy Clark. Were they not women, I would comment that it takes balls to vote this down as a first-timer.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:41
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28.6.05

Latest Chavez poll

Everyone has an opinion about Venezuela. Even me, though I'm not sure what it is yet. This poll, carried out by this company ahead of December's scheduled elections, suggests Venezuelans themselves are pretty sure:
Polling Data

If an election took place today, which party would you vote for?

Fifth Republic Movement (Pro-Chavez MVR) 41.7%

Justice First (PJ) 9.1%

Democratic Action (AD) 6.2%

Project Venezuela (Proven) 5.2%

Social Christian Party (Copei) 1.5%


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:42
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PR and not-extremism

More PR puffery from the Independent, this time a follow up to last night's Make Votes Count meeting at the House of Commons (which I unfortunately missed): "Does the present voting system provide unnecessary opportunities to extremists?" Jon Cruddas, Labour MP for Dagenham, where the BNP managed just under 10% in last month's election, has a contrary take on the usual 'PR helps extremist parties' line:
"The usual argument is that first-past-the-post chokes off extremists. Well my argument is that it facilitates extremists because political parties camp on the middle ground,"

I think he's bang on. This book on extreme-right parties in Europe suggests that their relative inability to make headway in the UK is helped by the positioning of our Conservative Party. Being further to the right than any mainstream right-wing party on the continent, its message has just enough anti-immigration, anti-EU and blood-and-soil (or cricket-and-warm-beer) content to keep all but the swivel-eyed loons happy. But that right-right-wing position is coming under triangulation pressure. If the party goes all 'Blue Labour' under a new leader, a significant rise in the BNP could result from precisely the mechanism Cruddas describes.

Of course, they will still be shut out of representation. There's little chance our homegrown neo-fascists could muster enough votes to actually win a seat under a first-past-the-post electoral system. But FPTP's 'out of sight, out of mind' approach to extremist parties could prove far more dangerous than giving them just enough public rope to hang themselves with.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:20
7 comments | links to this post


Bungling Bulgarian journos

Nothing quite like explaining a complicated electoral system to the idiot masses, and getting it wrong. From the Sofia Echo, on the Bulgarian system that has just returned a socialist-led coalition:
For the allocation of seats among the parties and coalitions, what is known as the D’Ondt method is used. This is a set of complicated mathematical algorithms and formulae.

As I showed here, D'Hondt is neither complicated nor a set of mathematical algorithms nor spelt in the way they think it is. Journalists, eh?


posted by Jarndyce @ 10:20
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27.6.05

When politicians attack

From a land where the Labor Party most certainly isn't New, a rather more exciting leadership debate than was intended:
A Labor Party debate on delaying the leadership primaries came to an abrupt end yesterday when clashes broke out among participants and a former Knesset member tried to assault Ehud Barak. The party moved immediately to vote, deciding to push back the election date indefinitely.

Former MK Addisu Messele, a supporter of Labor leadership contender Amir Peretz, mounted the platform where former prime minister Barak, also a candidate to lead the party, was sitting.

Messele called Barak "the king of fakes in the Israeli political system," shouting, "Ehud ran out on the Labor Party and returned in order to destroy what is left."

Messele's remarks sparked a brawl among audience members, during which Messele tried to reach Barak. He was prevented from doing so by the former prime minister's bodyguards.

The party's well displayed slogan for the event? "Labor's Finest Hour". I guess they mean this:
The hall in which Labor held its central committee meeting was in a shambles. Addisu Messele, who broke the meeting up, sat stunned on his chair. Amir Peretz, who had sent him to the podium to speak, sat on another chair, sipping water. Peretz's men stood on chairs making obscene gestures at Ehud Barak, who stood on the stage like Churchill, holding up his thumbs in a victory sign.

And just in case you're thinking there were any political taboos left unbroken:
Peretz's associates said that Messele was angered by a Barak supporter who shouted, "Dirty Ethiopian, go home."


posted by Jarndyce @ 12:53
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Book-burner, moi?

I'm certain this mode of thought is a necessary, though obviously not sufficient, prerequisite for Inquisitorial book-burners:
The author of The Communist Manifesto and Das Kapital [why left in German, not just Capital? a little too resonant perhaps?] may be the godfather of more misery, death and criminality than any other figure from the last 200 years. But he speaks, across the decades, and over a mountain of corpses, to an eternal yearning on the part of intellectuals.

By the same account, would Gove hold Milton Friedman responsible for thousands of Chilean disappeared, or describe J. D. Salinger as the godfather of John Lennon's assassination? Idiot.


posted by Jarndyce @ 12:14
5 comments | links to this post


Same arguments, with added palm trees

From Trinidad and Tobago, where the Wooding Constitutional Commission has recommended a mixed member electoral system (like Germany, New Zealand) to replace FPTP, some utterly sensible comments on electoral systems and political outcomes:
Whether a system works or not depends on more than the ideological configuration of the society, or on mathematical calculations as to what is "fair" or not. It depends as well on the configuration of the parties, the country's political history and political culture, the disposition of its basic political leaders and the assumptions which inform their basic political practices, and the incentives which exist to encourage them to behave in a particular way.

Do you hear that, Jack? Irrelevant international bogeyman stories won't wash here.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:38
3 comments | links to this post


25.6.05

Degree in the bloody obvious?

Did we really need a team of experts at Oxford University to tell us this:
Tony Blair would have failed to win an overall majority had the election been held under a system of proportional representation, according to a new study.


posted by Jarndyce @ 08:27
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23.6.05

Technology and democracy

From Rebecca MacKinnon, it seems all TypePad blogs are now blocked in China (Sino-Bloggering has been unwelcome for a while):
The Chinese government is mainly to blame for this, but it's important to consider the way in which U.S. technology is being used to stifle free speech in China - and the extent to which U.S. companies are responsible for this usage. This includes not only Microsoft, but also Cisco Systems and others.

And more here, including a little history:
Way back in 2001, according to this report... by the International Centre for Human Rights and Democratic Development, Cisco was courting the Chinese Public Security bureau for business. Author Ethan Gutmann has reported similar things. As have Amnesty International and the Open Net Initiative. Cisco denies any direct involvement or knowledge in how its products were going to be used. Nobody can 100% confirm anything. But are we just going to take Cisco's word for it and leave it at that? Seems like the MSM is, and so are our government leaders, but I'm frankly not convinced. I do not believe the questions should be dropped simply because lots of people find these questions really annoying and inconvenient - or because the answers are likely to fall into murky grey areas that can't easily be defined as "good" or "evil."

Now, you can question the existence of any corporate morality in cases such as these. Fiduciary duty may well override nebulous considerations of 'global justice'. I would disagree, but I see the point. However, what about the personal morality of the executive who, with foreknowledge, sold the routers that make the surveillance possible, if indeed that it what happened (Cisco dispute this)? Could you sell under those circumstances?


posted by Jarndyce @ 21:57
2 comments | links to this post


Entrenching democracy in Taiwan

A good friend who has been all over the Far East for more than a decade now assures me that Taiwan, where he now lives, is the truest Asian liberal polity. The improvement in the country's (already pretty good) Freedom House rating since this 2003 report confirms that. Strange, when you consider how brief their democratic experiment has been (democratization only started in 1987).

And this from the Japan Times notes democracy's further entrenchment on the island, with another round of constitutional and electoral reform:
There were four main changes:

(1) Taiwan abandoned the practice of electing the 225-member Legislative Yuan in a few large multimember seats, part of its inheritance from Japanese colonialism. It will now be elected in 73 constituencies, each of which will return one member on a first-past-the-post basis. Every voter will also vote from proportional representation lists; 40 members of Parliament will be elected this way. Thus a future Legislative Yuan will have 113 members, half as many as today.
...
(2) The term of the Legislative Yuan has been extended from three to four years. The present chamber will stay in office until 2008, when the next presidential and parliamentary elections are both held. This reform has been justified as reducing the frequency of elections, but its main result will be political. With the presidency and Parliament subject to the same political mood among the electorate, a president now has a better chance of winning a majority in Parliament.

(3) There is a change in the rules of impeachment of the president and vice president. The initial impeachment resolution will require a simple Legislative Yuan majority, while passage will need two-thirds.
...
(4) Since the National Assembly will no longer be the arbiter of constitutional change, people exercising their universal suffrage will have the last word.

So, a mixed / semi-proportional electoral system, fixed term parliaments, an elected head of state, constitutional rights of impeachment and a guarantee that any constitutional changes must first pass a referendum...anybody reading this in the UK getting jealous?

And it raises a further question, too: how can a country with such a sophisitcated democratic polity ever really assent to peaceful integration with its totalitarian neighbour across the strait? That's right: it can't.


posted by Jarndyce @ 13:16
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22.6.05

When is a democracy not a democracy...?

...perhaps when not everyone is allowed to vote? From the New York Times:
The laws that strip ex-offenders of the right to vote across the United States are the shame of the democratic world. Of an estimated five million Americans who were barred from voting in the last presidential election, a majority would have been able to vote if they had been citizens of countries like Britain, France, Germany or Australia.

Not offenders, note, not current prisoners. But ex-offenders — those whose social debt has been spent. The essence of criminal justice surely is rehabilitation and retribution. Without both there's no justice.

Or is deviation so damaging to American society, crime so serious that its commission takes away the right to vote forever? In that case, rehabilitation can never happen. It's a semantic myth.


posted by Jarndyce @ 10:56
3 comments | links to this post


21.6.05

Free to choose? Not in Singapore

An above-monikered new post from me at The Sharpener. But this time it's not just me ranting...oh, no, siree. Using the revolutionary WriteToThem.com service I've sent the following letter to my MP. I'll keep you posted on the answer.

Dear Diane Abbott

I see from the BBC website that the Prime Minister will be visiting Singapore next month to persuade IOC members to bring the Games here to Hackney, and London, in 2012. I wonder if he is aware that the recent Freedom House civil and political rights report for Singapore rated that country substantially less free than Benin, Bolivia and Bangladesh, roughly on a par with Armenia, Bahrain, Burkina Faso, Congo and Kuwait. All these countries have serious human rights problems, as I'm sure you know.

The report cites evidence of civil defamation suits used to silence opposition and widespread judicial bias. On the 2001 parliamentary election:

"[Previous ruling-party PM] Goh responded [to electoral opposition] by warning that neighborhoods voting against the [ruling] PAP would be the lowest priority for upgrades of public housing estates, where some 85 percent of Singaporeans live...The government uses civil defamation laws, strict electoral rules, curbs on civil liberties, patronage, and its influence over Singapore’s media to undermine the opposition’s prospects in elections...
...
The only place where Singaporeans can make public speeches without a license is Speakers’ Corner, which is located in a downtown park. Speakers, however, must register with the police at least 30 days in advance, and their speeches are recorded by the government and kept for six years."

Does the Prime Minister also know that last month, a local window-cleaner was hanged for possession of a kilo of cannabis? According to Amnesty, the tiny city-state has executed 420 people since 1991, the highest per capita execution rate in the world. Political films of any kind are still illegal. A short biopic of an opposition politician was withdrawn from this year's Singapore Film Festival because the director faced up to two years' imprisonment. Civic rights have actually waned in the last decade (again, according to Freedom House, hardly a leftist hangout).

I assume Mr. Blair will be meeting with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong while he is there. Perhaps you could suggest to him that he raises these matters during his visit? He claims that the cause of global freedom is important to him. Unlike yourself, I supported the war in Iraq in the hope that he was serious. Until the cause starts to mean more than the freedom to buy and sell, or the freedom to be bought and sold, none of us, not even idealists like me, are going to believe.

Yours sincerely


posted by Jarndyce @ 16:59
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Those lazy EU stereotypes

Anyone recognize this argument? The EU is a bureaucracts' paradise, bedevilled by pointless supranational regulation that makes for a poisonous business environment for local and foreign investors alike. In a cost-conscious, globalizing world, the EU is doomed to navel-gazing failure. We're slowly committing economic hari-kiri.

The US, on the other hand, is dynamic, flexible and outward-looking. Property rights are secured, regulation is light-touch (did someone mention 'capture'?), government is hands-off. A vertiable land of opportunity (unless you're a unionist...but then, hey, you're part of the problem, not the solution).

Okay, it's crude. But if you're hanging out in the places I think you're hanging out in, you must have heard it. So explain this: in the (somewhat right-wing) Heritage Foundation's 2005 Index of Economic Freedom, five EU countries are rated as more 'economically free' than the US. Five more, including the rest of 'socialist' Scandinavia, are directly behind it in the table. Three of the top five are EU countries, and five of the top eight. The US is thirteenth.

So, is it to be economic freedom and social protection for the unfortunate? Or neither?


posted by Jarndyce @ 12:33
4 comments | links to this post


20.6.05

Wrangling ends in Ramallah

Palestinians have finally approved a new voting system for future parliamentary elections. Elections were scheduled for July 17th, but were postponed after delegates originally refused to cede to a deal agreed between Hamas and Abbas. Now, however, Abbas has got his way:
...the parliament in the West Bank city of Ramallah decided in a 43-14 vote on Saturday to back the new electoral law which will see the number of deputies increase from 88 to 132.

Half the deputies will be elected in constituencies by a traditional first past the post system. The other half will be chosen by proportional representation in which voters will cast their ballots for the different parties.

The factions will then choose their representatives according the percentage of votes cast.


posted by Jarndyce @ 18:55
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Albania's election campaign

This backgrounder to Albania's parliamentary elections on July 3rd reports some intriguing campaign tricks:
In late May, both the main parties took out attack advertisements in the Tirana press in which they gave their opponents' office and home telephone numbers, effectively inviting their supporters to hurl abuse down the line. Inexplicably, the Democratic Party's (DP) advertisement showed the wife of Prime Minister Fatos Nano, leader of the Socialist Party (PS), carrying a massive condom.

Nowt like bigging-up your opponents, I guess.


posted by Jarndyce @ 17:14
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Defending the Israeli electoral system

It's either "Look at Italy!" or "Look at Israel!". The standard, lazy reply to pro-PR campaigners from those on the ossified left and right who defend our indefensible First Past The Post electoral system. Why? Because they assume Israel and Italy offer up perfect examples of how extreme PR creates electoral chaos, party fragmentation and ungovernability.

My reply would be: first, nobody sane is proposing a system of perfect proportionality for the UK; second, both countries have entirely different political cultures to ours, and are therefore irrelevant comparators. And here's a third (applicable to Israel, anyway): according to Einat Wilf, foreign policy adviser to Shimon Peres, Israel's electoral system is actually pretty good:
Israel has been a functioning, stable, constant democracy for all 57 years of its existence. It has never experienced anything close to a constitutional crisis. It has never experienced civil war, a military coup, or a revolution, or any attempt at them. There was never any need for a military intervention to protect the election results, election results were never contested, and democratic processes were never suspended.

That in itself is quite an achievement. There are very few countries that share this achievement — 21 to be precise...

All the more remarkable, according to Wilf, because of the unique pressures on the Israeli system caused by regular (occasionally permanent) war, an often incompatible ethnic mix, and deep ideological cleavages.

She's wrong. Not because Israel's survival as a democracy since 1948 isn't remarkable. It is. But in attributing that survival to the fractured electoral system, she's backing the wrong horse. Laud Israel's commitment to constitutionalism, its strong bonds of friendship with the US, its political system. Some of those external pressures she mentions may even have helped fix the bonds of internal democracy even tighter. Differentiation from the undemocratic Other is part of what holds Israel together. But don't credit the electoral system. It's a mess. Israel has survived as a democracy in spite of it, not because of it.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:06
1 comments | links to this post


17.6.05

Democracy, sorry, I mean hypocrisy

Deeply, deeply flawed it may be, but today Iranians go to the polls in the first round of a likely two-round contest to elect a new president. One can only imagine the (partly justified) crowing from Washington when (if?) Saudi Arabia and Egypt finally reach even this point in their pathetic 'transition to democracy'. Instead, however, yesterday's propaganda Press Briefing in the White House brought this exchange betwween journalists and Scott McClellan:
Q: Can I turn you for a moment to the Iran statement that the President issued earlier today. I'll read you three lines from it: "Iran's rulers denied more than 1,000 people who put themselves forward as candidates, including popular reformers and women who have done so much. The Iranian people deserve a genuinely democratic system in which elections are honest. They deserve freedom of assembly so Iranians can gather and press for any reform in a peaceful, loyal opposition that can keep the government in check." Scott, can you tell us, if we wanted to insert the word "Egypt" every place you had Iran, and "Egyptians" everyplace you had Iranians, would you consider that also a fair statement of the administration policy?

MR. McCLELLAN: A couple of things. First of all, just on the general statement, different circumstances require different strategies, and people are going to proceed at different -- at a different pace in different parts of the world. The President has said that in his remarks. You heard it in his inaugural address.

In terms of Iran, this is a message to the people of Iran. The President is saying that we stand with the people of Iran who seek greater freedom. You have an unelected few mullahs who are denying the people of Iran their rights. This is a country run by an unelected few who threw a thousand people off the ballot, including all the women who were seeking to run for office. This is a group of an unelected few that are denying the people their rights. They're denying freedom of press; they're denying freedom of assembly; they're denying rule of law; they're denying equal justice; they're denying religious freedom to the people of Iran. And we are going to stand with the people of Iran and the people elsewhere in the world who seek greater freedom.

In Egypt, the President has made it very clear that we appreciate the step that they are taking to have multi-candidate and multi-party presidential elections. That's an important step. And it's important that Egypt follow through on that commitment and have free and fair elections.

Iran is not having truly free and fair elections. This is something being driven by the unelected few.

Q: Would you say, Scott, just to follow up on that, that the Iranian election that takes place tomorrow -- which does have at least some multiple candidates -- it clearly is not a form of Jeffersonian democracy -- but would you say that it is a more advanced democratic step than, say, an ally like Saudi Arabia has conducted in the past year?

MR. McCLELLAN: I would say what we've said on Iran, and you know what we've said on Saudi Arabia, too.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:00
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16.6.05

Berlin reds

More bad news for German lame-duck Schroder:
Two leftist groups that aim to take votes from the Social Democrats at Germany's upcoming general election agreed on Wednesday to name their rapidly-formed alliance the 'Democratic Left.PDS'.
...
The rebel ex-leader of German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats (SPD), Oskar Lafontaine, said last week he would run as a candidate for the leftist bloc. Opinion polls are mixed over the its potential, with predictions of between 8 and 18 percent support.


posted by Jarndyce @ 23:14
2 comments | links to this post


Site admin — links

I've added a link to links to the sidebar (also here). It's just a temporary portal to my Bloglines subscriptions. It'll do for now. To be honest, recipro-linking buddies, you're not going to pick up a huge amount of traffic through me at the moment anyway. Little acorns and all that...and remember I write for The Sharpener, too. You're probably linked there aswell.

BTW, if you're not in my subscriptions folder and think you should be, or have a blog you think might interest me, leave me a note in the comments field and I'll look into it.

Message ends.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:27
2 comments | links to this post


Peter Hain = Robert Mugabe

From Hansard, an exchange yesterday between David Davies (the other one — Tory MP for Monmouth) and Peter Hain:
It is the Mugabe-isation of Welsh politics

What can he have been talking about? The forced repatriation of English second-homers back down the M4? The return of ancient grazing rights to the descendants of Celts at the expense of more recent arrivals? Electoral fraud on a scale that would make even Brummies blush?

No, just some proposed tinkering with the electoral system: from 2007 candidates will have to choose between standing in single-member constituencies and holding spots on the top-up regional lists. Not both. From Welsh Secretary Hain:
"The government will . . . end what is widely accepted as the abuse in the assembly's electoral system, which enables 'losers' to become 'winners'[*]."
He cited the example of the battle for the Clwyd West constituency in 2003 when five candidates stood, four of whom became assembly members (AMs) – one as the constituency candidate and three others on the regional PR top-up list.
"For losing candidates to be able to become AMs, claiming to represent the constituents they were defeated by devalues the integrity of the assembly electoral system and is a disincentive to vote

Tories feel this is blatant gerrymandering (it isn't, even though Labour don't actually have any top-up AMs). What it does, however, is make it a huge risk for any opposition AM to stand in a single-member seat. Defeat would mean the political wilderness, with no possibility of redemption via the top-up list. Given the paucity of decent opposition in Wales, and a likely natural risk-aversion from political heavyweights, sitting Labour AMs can expect an easier ride in 2007.

* I'm resisting the temptation to mention other electoral systems that turn losers into winners.


posted by Jarndyce @ 08:35
1 comments | links to this post


15.6.05

PR and turnout

All good stuff, as ever, from the Indy:
Countries which elect their governments using proportional voting systems have higher turnouts among voters than those using first-past-the-post, electoral specialists have found.

Nations using PR had average turnouts of 70 per cent - 10 per cent higher than those, such as Britain, which use non-proportional systems.

The analysis of turnout in 164 countries, by Professor Pippa Norris of Harvard University, was seized on yesterday by MPs who said PR may be an answer to addressing the worrying lack of voter engagement in the UK.

And some worthy detail from the Prof. here. But is anyone else getting worried that the case for electoral reform is becoming increasingly ghettoized onto the interwebnet and coralled onto the pages of the lowest selling proper national in Britain?


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:58
4 comments | links to this post


14.6.05

A forgotten election?

From Eurasianet, some background on what might just be the most important election of 2005: Iran:
In all, eight candidates are competing in the June 17 presidential vote. If the top candidate fails to garner a majority of the vote, the two leading vote-getters will face off in a second-round of voting in late June.

Four of those candidates are out-and-out 'conservatives' (read: hardline Islamists); three are 'reformers' (probably what we'd label 'conservative'). None have commited electoral suicide by promising to abandon the nuclear program.

The final candidate is the most intriguing: Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, president of Iran throughout most of the 1990s and pragmatist par excellence, who seems to have re-invented himself as the voice of privatization, economic globalization and international re-integration. And guess what? He's ahead in the polls:
Results of a recent opinion survey, conducted by the Iran Student Polling Agency, showed that Rafsanjani’s support has slipped slightly from a high of almost 35 percent down to 28 percent. However, that figure is roughly equal to the combined level of support for the four conservative candidates. The second most popular candidate was Qalibaf with 14 percent, according to the student poll, which was conducted May 31-June 1 and is based on over 4,700 interviews. No margin of error was cited in the poll.

There are three reform-leaning candidates in the campaign. One, Mustafa Moin, a former education minister in incumbent president Mohammad Khatami’s administration, came in third in the student’s poll with just over 10 percent support.

So, it seems likely that a French-style run-off will be the result, probably Rafsanjani versus A N Other (intriguingly, that Other could just be another reformer, with one last push from Moin). Come the end of June, we'll know who the next (maybe last?) president of the Islamic Republic will be.


posted by Jarndyce @ 10:46
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The emerging European demos

The Eurosceptic argument against democratizing the EU goes, simply, as follows: there is no European demos, therefore there can be no real European democracy and no hope of building it. I (and others) tend to disagree, and this EIOP research paper backs up our claims.

Constructed from bespoke Eurobarometer survey data from ten EU countries, the authors find significant evidence of a European identity, not substituting for national identity, but nested within it. Not 'I feel more European than British' or 'I feel British but not European', but 'I feel European and British':
...the different analyses presented here clearly show that national and European identities are compatible. This finding is not particularly surprising, but a number of further points should be highlighted. First, and as mentioned above, our data does not support the idea of a transfer of identity from the national to the European level. We hypothesised that these two identities are compatible because they are of different order and endowed with different meanings.

The two identities seem to comprise feelings of a different type. National identity is 'ethno-cultural': built from language, history and culture. European identity is 'instrumental': based on bonds of trade and economy, freedom of movement and residence (and general cultural factors like 'common civilisation'). Civic considerations (rights, duties) make up minor elements of both strands of identity.

But, there's a catch for Europhiles. Of course. As Table IV shows, us Brits have a lower sense of 'dual nationality' than any of our neighbours (just 36% of us; the highest are the Italians and Spanish, both in the 60s). While this, acording to the survey data, has the pleasant side-effect of making us more accepting of 'outside' groups from beyond Europe's borders, it predictably makes us less Euro-integrationist.

Which leaves two paths forward. First, the vote UKIP in 2009 option:
Frankly Britain has become a massive liability to the European project.
...
Here's the thing that the British don't seem to understand about Europe: most of the people in the other member states actually want it to work. Weird, huh? How you define "work" is, of course, open to interpretation and that's where the various disagreements between the other member states arise. With Britain though, there's a real sense that the whole nation is a sullen child been dragged along on a family excursion... a spoiler, absolutely determined to make it as unpleasant as possible for everyone involved.

We should get out and stay out. Europe has a nicely emerging demos, thank you very much, it just doesn't include us. The intimately linked 'Non' and 'Nee' votes may be the first public sign of this.

But the survey data uncovered by EIOP suggest an alternative. Table 5 shows that, in common with our neighbours, Brits see the European project in primarily instrumental terms. It works for us because it's useful. We like the freedoms of movement and trade, even if we don't all like the idea of European unity.

So how to nurture those instrumental feelings, and with them a British sense of European-ness? Simply this: alongside much needed democratic reform in Brussels, we must make Europe's economics work. And let me kick things off with one question: why would an economy running effectively at full employment want to risk changing irreversibly its relationship with the world's biggest trading bloc?


posted by Jarndyce @ 07:27
4 comments | links to this post


13.6.05

Boring, boring, boring

I realise that the anti-PR brigade don't actually have to come up with any decent arguments, possession of the electoral system being nine tenths (or is it 22%?) of the law and all that. But if they will insist on opening their mouths, like Tory constitutional affairs spokesman Oliver Heald, can I make a suggestion: at least come up with something fucking original, something that I haven't discredited elsewhere already:
Britain does need a fairer electoral system, but PR is not the answer. Proportional representation prevents voters from kicking out unpopular government and leads to extremist and minority parties being elected with as little as 5 per cent of the vote.

*Sigh*

(via)


posted by Jarndyce @ 21:05
1 comments | links to this post


How the left lost the people

Busy today, but while I'm away go and read this: populists and demagogues, the voting psychology of the brutish masses, with some 'Non / Nee' votes chucked in for good measure.


posted by Jarndyce @ 13:17
0 comments | links to this post


9.6.05

Should Tories love PR?

To MMVC again, and a plea from Paul for the Tories to consider electoral reform:
The Tories, it would appear, haven’t yet spent long enough in opposition to bother looking seriously at the ways in which the system they so ardently support is so prejudiced against them. It obviously didn’t matter when they were in power, then the natural choice for the next Tory leader turned up on the other side, while a succession of odd little bald men led the party from one embarrassing defeat to another. They may yet spend another generation in the political wilderness, but looking at all the possible solutions, including electoral reform, would surely be a good idea.

Paul's bang on about the electoral system working against Michael Howard's team this time. The Conservatives won the vote in England, finishing ahead of Labour by almost 64,000, yet won 93 fewer seats. In Scotland it was even worse: 16% of votes for just one seat (proportionality would have given them 9). Boundaries were perhaps a little wonky, but not by enough to make a deal of difference. Votes cast for Veritas and UKIP may have cost them the odd close finish, but (as I argued here) claims that it cost 27 Conservative seats are wildly over-the-top.

We can agree that in 2005 the gods weren't in blue (no indeed, they were in red). So, purely from self-interest, should the Tories consider electoral reform, a flavour of PR perhaps? Paul seems convinced. I'm not so sure. Go here to find out why.


posted by Jarndyce @ 22:53
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One most excellent reason to support PR

Spotted by Paul, of the estimable Make My Vote Count blog:
Luckily we have proof; iron-clad, impenetrable proof that what we are doing is Right: we’ve pissed off the government whips. Anything that sticks in the craw of a snivelling, weasly, yes-man, dogsbody who epitomises all that is sickening about career politicians has to be not just good, but positively angelic.


posted by Jarndyce @ 12:17
0 comments | links to this post


8.6.05

AMS the wrong way

There are plenty of good arguments for the adoption of German- and New Zealand-style top-up Additional Member Systems (in American-speak, electing members 'at large'). However, this isn't one of them:
Attempting to calm fears that Utah's lone Democrat in Congress could be redistricted out of office if the state gets a fourth House seat [it currently has three], a nonprofit group has developed a novel idea: electing the new seat at-large.
...
But majority and minority leadership are not yet supporting the [redistricting] legislation, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has said she worries the bill could endanger the seat for Rep. Jim Matheson, a Utah Democrat in a mostly Republican district.

DC Vote, a group pushing the legislation, says their solution could garner full support since essentially it would guarantee Matheson keeps his seat, the district gains a vote and Republicans pick up an additional House member.

Did I miss something, or are we now designing electoral systems to ensure certain members are guaranteed their seats come election time? It's not like the incumbency return rate for the House of Representatives isn't high enough already — 99% in 2002.


posted by Jarndyce @ 23:15
0 comments | links to this post


Votes for the intelligent

On the occasions I fully understand what he's talking about, I usually find myself in agreement with this guy. But I'm not convinced by his proposal for electoral reform: demand-revealing referenda, and lots of them:
It would work as follows. Instead of asking people to say yes or no, we ask them to vote the sum of money they’d pay to sign up [to, for example, the European Constitution] or not. In our example, the votes would be:

Alan - £20 to sign up.

Bill - £20 to sign up.

Charlie - £100 to say no.

Then, rather than count votes, we add up the money, and go with the biggest sum. So in this case we stay out.

The next step is crucial. Each voter pays a tax according to whether his vote made a difference. Alan and Bill pay no tax because their vote has not affected the outcome. But Charlie must pay £40 – because had he not voted, our trio would have signed up to the constitution, giving Alan and Bill £40.

A number of objections spring immediately to mind. The system would favour the rich, who could afford to bet bigger on a pet issue, and on a wider range of issues, than the poor. (Though Chris has an interesting dynamic response to that one.) Also, as explained here, a referendum culture allows parliament to abdicate the responsibility to debate and engage honestly. They are a political cop-out. Third, I wonder about the costs and bureaucracy involved in holding regular plebiscites.

A story in Saturday's Torygraph, however, suggested another problem: people are just too stupid:
The Government admitted this week that more than a million families have yet to do anything with vouchers for at least £250 it posted to each of them before April 5.

That was the deadline the Government set for distributing 2 million Child Trust Fund (CTF) vouchers to parents or guardians of every baby born since September 1, 2002.

If half the child-rearing adult population can't even claim free money when it's on offer (some cheques are as large as £500), how the hell are they going to cope with the kind of continuous political engagement demanded by Chris's demand-revealing governance proposal? Unless, of course, you think that the disenfranchisement of the dumb is A Good Thing.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:18
15 comments | links to this post


7.6.05

In Taiwan, turkeys do vote for Christmas

Well, this guy said it would never happen here. But Taiwan's National Assembly (the elected upper house) will vote today to disband itself (even more here). 300 lawmakers out of a job, just like that, as a result of constitutional amendments introduced in 2000 and finally coming to fruition this week.

But there's more:
Last August, lawmakers passed constitutional amendments that would halve the number of legislative seats from the current 225 down to 113 and adopt a "single-member district, two-vote system" for legislative elections, starting in 2008. At that time, lawmakers' terms are also to be lengthened from three to four years.

So, fixed terms for the legislature will continue (slightly lengthened), and another 112 legislators in the lower house (the Legislative Yuan) have effectively voted themselves out of a job. Limited government, indeed.

And the most interesting bit I've saved til last:
After the assembly is eliminated, bills regarding amendments and territory changes will need to be ratified by the public via referendum after being passed by the legislature.

Which, according to this BBC report, has the Chinese concerned that the referendum might be used to declare independence from the mainland, or at least change the province's status. Xinhua, meanwhile, have no comment. Which I take to mean: all the right people are sulking.


posted by Jarndyce @ 08:23
0 comments | links to this post


6.6.05

Just desserts

Jamie, on a sleazy government that didn't deserve to be re-elected.


posted by Jarndyce @ 17:56
0 comments | links to this post


Airbrushing dictators

From The Statesman, Mandelsonian advice on presenting the acceptable face of militarism:
General Pervez Musharraf would give up his uniform if he decides to contest the 2007 presidential elections, foreign minister Mr Khurshid Kasuri has said.


posted by Jarndyce @ 10:53
0 comments | links to this post


3.6.05

Citizen’s Basic Income

A little OT meander (but then I did promise some other stuff, didn't I?)... with words you won't hear here often: Tim Worstall has nailed it:
Instead of cloggingup the market with ever more prescriptive rules in ever more detail, scrap them all, but hand more power to labour by providing a Citizen’s Basic Income. Workers thus have a great deal more bargaining power for they can indeed, at less (but not no) risk, quit and go elsewhere.
...
Yes, everyone gets it whether they work or not. It replaces unemployment pay, tax credits, State pensions, child benefit, rent allowances, incapacity benefit, everything, the entire panoply of the welfare state. There is no means testing, no withdrawal of the income as you work. Anything you earn is over and above the benefit.

A CBI is a solution from every possible angle. For the free marketeers, it wipes out deadweight losses from unnecessary industrial regulation, minimum wages, and disincentives to work caused by benefit withdrawal. For the institutionalists, transactions costs accrued by an army of bureaucrats administering benefits and policing the workplace are nuked. For the touchy-feely left, the humiliation of means testing is nixed in an instant. For the Marxists, the CBI addresses a fundamental failure of neoclassical economics: its neglect of the power dynamic. Armed with a CBI, workers can bargain for decent working conditions on the way in and offer a credible threat to withdraw their labour if contracts aren't upheld in spirit and letter.

It's liberal, it's egalitarian, and it's libertarian enough for all but the lunatic fringe. Wonder what the conservatives think?


posted by Jarndyce @ 15:52
7 comments | links to this post


Corruption and closed-list PR

This opinion piece in the Jerusalem Post attacks the corruption of Israeli political society, and blames it on the closed-list PR electoral system. The problem with closed-list systems, especially those like Israel with one national constituency, is that they deliver the power that ought to belong to voters into the hands of parties:
In Israel, people vote for a party rather than an individual, leaving the party to decide which individuals should fill any seats it wins. Thus if, say, the Likud opted to repay Tzahi Hanegbi for having given numerous jobs to friends and relatives of party hacks by awarding him a "safe" slot on the party's next Knesset list, Likud voters would have no way to oust him, however much they despised his reported corrupt use of their tax shekels — unless they were willing to abandon their party en masse.

And abandoning the party en masse isn't going to happen in a country with cleavages of opinion as wide as Israel. There are higher priorities than one or two MKs' corrupt behaviour in the voter's mind as she plants her cross.

As if by magic comes this story from today's Independent on corruption at the highest tier of South African politics: South Africa also uses a closed-list system to elect its parliament. Politicians can fall on their sword, sure, but they can't be skewered, Neil Hamilton-style, by voters.

The solution offered by the Post is one suggested in a recent piece at The Sharpener: open-list proportional representation. From the Post again:
Open-list systems come in several variations, but here is one example: The country is divided into large, multi-seat electoral districts, each of which elects, say, five or 10 legislators. Within each district, parties can run multiple candidates, but each voter casts a ballot for only one candidate, by name. The seats are then divided according to the proportion of the vote won by each party: If, for instance, Labor's candidates collectively won 40 percent of the vote in a given district, Labor would receive two of that district's five seats. But instead of the party choosing the occupants of those seats, they would go to the candidates who won the most votes in that district.

In other words, if the 40% of voters who chose Labor candidates collectively cast 1,000 votes for candidate A, 800 for B, 600 for C, 400 for D and 200 for E, the district's two Labor MKs would be A and B – even if D and E were the party's preferred choices. This enables voters to punish a particular incumbent for corruption while still voting for members of the party they prefer.

An alternative proposed by the Post is a Westminster-style plurality-majority system (FPTP). But that has its own problems, not least that swathes of Israeli opinion would be shut out of the Knesset. In any case, it doesn't solve the central problem. Yes, voters in single-member constituencies can oust objectionable candidates in a straight run-off. But if party cleavages are deep, and other issues more prominent in the voter's mind, loyalty to the party cause will prevail. We are back where we started.


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:17
2 comments | links to this post


2.6.05

Old habits, and all that...

From the Maldives, what he giveth with one hand:
Parliament in the Maldives has unanimously voted to back plans to give the nation its first multi-party democracy, the government has said.

President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, who came to power in 1978, says he wants the system in place by December.

...he taketh away with the other:
Ahead of the sitting, four leading dissidents had been arrested.

And, if they pick FPTP as their electoral system of choice, I'll Give You The Money Myself.


posted by Jarndyce @ 16:21
0 comments | links to this post


Palm trees, bobbies on the beat and electoral reform

Can't rightly say I've ever quoted from the Bermuda Sun before. Still, like electoral reformers all over the place, I guess they're watching referendum shenanigans in British Columbia from there too. And their particular Bermudan problem? All too familiar:
We shouldn’t be talking about independence as a first means to untie us from Mother UK. Rather, about completely overhauling our archaic (read, British) electoral system, and making, ‘One Man, One Vote, of Equal Value’ really mean something. Instead of the fuzzy, racially charged slogan it was leading up to 1998.

At present my vote does not mean the same as my neighbour’s. At the last General Election both parties in Bermuda were separated by some four to five per cent of the popular vote. Yet once in Government the seat margin is 22 per cent (22 PLP to 14 UBP). If popular vote were used to tally actual Parliamentary seats, the UBP would have 17 seats and the PLP 19. Such a slim majority for a ruling party could be both better (more compromise and dialogue to get things done) and worse (fluid platforms and party policy).
...
University of Victoria’s political scientist Norman Ruff says about any PR system: “Your vote isn’t just counted, it actually counts. It throws the whole debate over electoral systems toward the individual voter rather than the point of view of the [MPs].”

Perhaps Bermuda politics needs just such a grassroots electoral overhaul. And a way out of our current democratic deficit, creating an accepted vortex of bickering and partisanship.


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:57
0 comments | links to this post


Y oh Y

Only 14 years late, but universal (though limited) suffrage is coming to Kuwait. Today marks the end of an era:
Kuwaiti men have been casting ballots in the last elections in the Gulf state before women get the right to vote.
...
Women will be able to take part in parliamentary elections in 2007 and the next local elections in 2009.

Next stop a directly-elected Emir?


posted by Jarndyce @ 14:01
0 comments | links to this post


1.6.05

Pioneering PR advocate

From student newspaper the Pioneer Times, a neat biography of William Patterson, Irishman and American, born in the year of the '45, Princeton graduate, founding US Senator, New Jersey's first attorney general then governor, signatory of the US Constitution, associate justice to the Supreme Court — and advocate of PR for the House of Representatives.


posted by Jarndyce @ 11:36
0 comments | links to this post


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